Dúvida #390 de @Co***o
07/09/2026, 18:03:57
River: 8♦3♠ FOLDA 94% contra o all-in — o call é erro
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Contexto da dúvida
3s 8d
Replay da mão
ver Hand History cru
Poker Hand #TM6380446939: Tournament #309389932, WSOP Online: $54 Sunday Mystery Bounty, $1M GTD Hold'em No Limit - Level5(250/500(75)) - 2026/09/06 14:26:02 Table '762' 8-max Seat #2 is the button Seat 1: eb226f79 (26,295 in chips) Seat 2: 6aa53977 (14,736 in chips) Seat 3: ab949389 (20,175 in chips) Seat 4: HERO (56,238 in chips) Seat 5: 4fa2f4cd (18,155 in chips) Seat 6: 9c29e83f (23,220 in chips) Seat 7: 383fc6dc (22,645 in chips) Seat 8: fe18d08c (42,553 in chips) fe18d08c: posts the ante 75 4fa2f4cd: posts the ante 75 ab949389: posts the ante 75 6aa53977: posts the ante 75 eb226f79: posts the ante 75 383fc6dc: posts the ante 75 HERO: posts the ante 75 9c29e83f: posts the ante 75 ab949389: posts small blind 250 HERO: posts big blind 500 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to eb226f79 Dealt to 6aa53977 Dealt to ab949389 Dealt to HERO [3s 8d] Dealt to 4fa2f4cd Dealt to 9c29e83f Dealt to 383fc6dc Dealt to fe18d08c 4fa2f4cd: folds 9c29e83f: folds 383fc6dc: folds fe18d08c: folds eb226f79: folds 6aa53977: folds ab949389: calls 250 HERO: raises 1,250 to 1,750 ab949389: calls 1,250 *** FLOP *** [8h 6c 6h] ab949389: checks HERO: checks *** TURN *** [8h 6c 6h] [7c] ab949389: bets 3,075 HERO: calls 3,075 *** RIVER *** [8h 6c 6h 7c] [Ts] ab949389: bets 15,275 and is all-in HERO: calls 15,275 ab949389: shows [Tc 9c] (a straight, Ten to Six) HERO: shows [3s 8d] (two pair, Eights and Sixes) *** SHOWDOWN *** ab949389 collected 40,800 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 40,800 | Rake 0 | Jackpot 0 | Bingo 0 | Fortune 0 | Tax 0 Board [8h 6c 6h 7c Ts] Seat 1: eb226f79 folded before Flop Seat 2: 6aa53977 (button) folded before Flop Seat 3: ab949389 (small blind) showed [Tc 9c] and won (40,800) with a straight, Ten to Six Seat 4: HERO (big blind) showed [3s 8d] and lost with two pair, Eights and Sixes Seat 5: 4fa2f4cd folded before Flop Seat 6: 9c29e83f folded before Flop Seat 7: 383fc6dc folded before Flop Seat 8: fe18d08c folded before Flop
Resposta
O call do all-in no river foi o erro. Com 8♦3♠ no 8♥6♥6♣7♣T♠, contra o all-in do SB, a árvore paga com o seu combo só 6,1% das vezes (83o em geral, 1,6%). Dois pares com o 6 do board, num river que completou sequência, ficam no fundo do range que chegou até ali e ganham de muito pouco contra um all-in. Ressalvas: torneio Mystery Bounty resolvido como vanilla; o all-in da árvore é 163% do pote (real 149%).
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